Modeling the Impact of Insurgency on Food Security in North-Eastern Nigeria: A Mathematical Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62054/ijdm/0302.05Abstract
This study develops a compartmentalized dynamic resettlement model linking population transitions among Normal, Camps, Integrated, and Resettled households to food sufficiency and aggregate production. Analytical results establish positivity, boundedness, and an invariant region, while linear stability analysis using Jacobian and Routh–Hurwitz criteria confirm local asymptotic stability when effective death and transition rates exceed births. Numerical simulations, parameterized with FAO yield data and Brown’s (2022) stability condition under constant insurgency intensity and environmental shock factor, reveal initial surges in camp populations followed by integration and resettlement, with long‑term stabilization of normal households. Food sufficiency transitions from early deficit to sustainable equilibrium as production recovers, providing a robust quantitative framework for humanitarian policy evaluation and resilience planning in the displacement‑affected north-eastern region of Nigeria.
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Data Availability Statement
Dataset used in this research have been provided in the body of the work. The data have been obtained from (i) Brown, J. (2022), (ii) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2023) and (iii) International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2022)
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Copyright (c) 2026 Samuel Musa, Mathew R. Odekunle, Abdulfatai A. Momoh, Jacob F. Fintan, Abdulkareem J. Momodu, Adesupo A. Akinrefon (Author)
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