Age-Structured Compartmental Model for Cholera Transmission Dynamics and Control in Shendam Local Government Area, Plateau State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62054/ijdm/0302.17Abstract
Cholera remains a significant public health concern in regions with inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities. This study develops and analyzes an age-structured cholera transmission model with environmental contamination to investigate the dynamics of the disease in Shendam Local Government Area, Plateau State, Nigeria. The model incorporates susceptible, infected, and recovered children and adults, together with an environmental bacterial reservoir. Fundamental qualitative properties of the model, including positivity and boundedness of solutions, were established. The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, was derived using the next-generation matrix method, and stability analysis showed that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_0<1$, while the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_0>1$. The model was calibrated using monthly cholera case data from January to December 2025 through a least-squares fitting procedure in MATLAB, yielding good agreement between observed and simulated data. Sensitivity analysis revealed that direct and environmental transmission rates, as well as bacterial shedding, are the most influential parameters driving disease persistence, whereas recovery, bacterial decay, and improved sanitation contribute significantly to disease reduction. Numerical simulations further demonstrated that enhanced environmental hygiene and treatment interventions substantially decrease infection prevalence. The findings highlight the critical role of environmental contamination in sustaining cholera transmission and underscore the importance of integrated control measures, including improved sanitation, safe water supply, environmental management, and effective treatment programmes, for sustainable cholera control.
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