Mathematical Analysis of an Occult Hepatitis B Transmission Model Incorporating Vertical Transmission and Vaccination
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62064/ijdm/0303.03Abstract
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major public health problem due to its potential to cause chronic liver disease and its continued transmission through infected blood and body fluids, particularly from infected mothers to their newborns. Despite the availability of effective vaccines, incomplete vaccination, vertical transmission, and occult Hepatitis B infection continue to contribute to the persistence of the disease. This study develops and analyzes a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HBV incorporating vaccination, vertical transmission, and occult infection. The model extends existing HBV models by accounting for occult infection as a hidden source of disease persistence. The basic reproduction number was derived using the next-generation matrix method, while the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points and the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium were investigated. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one. The baseline analysis yielded \(R_0 = 0.2410\), indicating that HBV transmission can be controlled under the baseline intervention measures. Numerical simulations further show that increased vaccination coverage and reduced mother-to-child transmission decrease the infected population, while occult infection contributes to continued disease persistence. These findings highlight the importance of sustained vaccination, prevention of vertical transmission, and consideration of occult infection in strategies for controlling Hepatitis B.
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