Mathematical Analysis of Drought-Induced and Maize Streak Virus Dynamics in Non-Genetically Modified Maize Plants
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62054/ijdm/0303.04Abstract
Drought stress and Maize Streak Virus (MSV) are major constraints to maize production, particularly in regions where water scarcity and vector-mediated virus transmission occur simultaneously. This study develops and analyzes a mathematical model of the dynamics of drought stress and MSV transmission in non-genetically modified (non-GM) maize to enhance understanding of their combined effects on maize productions. The basic reproduction number was derived using the next-generation matrix (NGM) method to quantify the average number of secondary infections. The global stability of the system were established using Castillo–Chavez method, respectively. It was shown that the disease-free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable when . Sensitivity analysis was performed using the normalized forward sensitivity index to identify key parameters influencing disease transmission. Parameters with positive sensitivity indices increase the risk of outbreaks, whereas those with negative indices reduce the likelihood of sustained transmission. Numerical simulations were conducted to examine the temporal dynamics of the model compartments and assess the influence of the vector-to-maize transmission parameter. The simulations showed a rapid decline in the susceptible non-GM maize population, while drought-exposed and MSV-related compartments exhibited substantial changes during the early stages of the simulation. The population suffering from both drought and MSV increased considerably, reaching approximately 17,500 plants around days 65-70 before gradually declining. Parameter variation was performed by varying the vector-to-maize transmission parameter,, from 0.25 to 1.00. The findings suggest that the interaction between drought and MSV can impose a substantial and persistent burden on non-GM maize. Effective management therefore requires an integrated approach involving vector control, early MSV detection, improved drought management, and the development of maize varieties with enhanced drought tolerance and MSV resistance. The model provides a useful baseline for assessing the potential benefits of genetically modified maize and other intervention strategies for reducing the combined effects of drought and MSV on maize production.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Urum G. Timothy, Musa Samuel, Adee O. Solomon, Abdullahi A. Shuaibu, Manju K. Ahmed (Author)
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