Modeling Rainfall in Three Northern Nigerian States with SARIMA (1981–2020)
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.62054/ijdm/0302.26Résumé
This study compares the forecasting models of monthly rainfall data of three northern Nigerian states which are Katsina, Borno and Sokoto. The analysis is based on using monthly amount of rainfall data from January 1981 to December 2020.The data were stationary at first difference with p-values less than 0.05, Seasonal autoregressive Integrated moving Average (SARIMA) models were computed and diagnosed. Diagnostic test was run on the models where the results showed that the models were adequate and serially uncorrelated using Box-Ljung test plot respectively. Furthermore, SARIMA(10, 1, 10) x(1, 2, 1)12 , SARIMA(10, 1, 10) x(1, 2, 1)12 and SARIMA(1, 1, 1) x(1, 2, 1)12 were found to be adequate from the result of the Box-Ljung test of residuals respectively. The results showed that, the three selected models were best for each variable on monthly rainfall in the three northern Nigeria states.
Références
Abdul-Aziz, A. R., Anokye, M., Kwame, A., Munyakazi, L., & Nsowah-Nuamah, N. N. N. (2013). Modeling and forecasting rainfall pattern in Ghana as a seasonal ARIMA process: The case of Ashanti Region. International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences.
Adefolalu, D. O. (1986). Rainfall trends for periods 1911–1980 over Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 39, 81–89.
Ampaw, E. M., Akuffo, B., Opoku, L. S., & Lartey, S. (2013). Time series modeling of rainfall in New Juaben Municipality of the Eastern Region of Ghana. Contemporary Research in Business and Social Sciences.
Ati, O. F. (1996). Inter-Tropical Discontinuity and rainfall variability in northern Nigeria. Journal of Arid Environments.
Ati, O. F., Stigter, C. J., & Oladipo, E. O. (2002). A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in northern Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology, 22(6), 731–742.
Ayoade, J. O. (1973). Seasonal rainfall variability in Nigeria. The Geographical Journal, 139(3), 430–437.
Bari, S. H., Rahman, M. T. U., Hoque, M. A., & Hussain, M. M. (2015). Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the Sylhet region of Bangladesh. Atmospheric Research.
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
Chonge, G., Simwa, R., & Nderitu, J. (2015). Time series modelling of rainfall in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. Mathematical Theory and Modeling, 5(9), 37–51.
Cowden, J. R., Watkins, D. W., & Mihelcic, J. R. (2010). Stochastic rainfall modeling in West Africa. Journal of Hydrology, 388(1–2), 195–203.
Eni, D. D., & Adeyeye, F. J. (2015). Seasonal ARIMA modeling and forecasting of rainfall in Warri town, Delta State, Nigeria. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 3, 91–98.
Eludoyin, O. S., Adelekan, I. O., Webster, R., & Eludoyin, A. O. (2009). Monthly rainfall distribution in Nigeria. Journal of Geography and Regional Planning.
Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., & Tebaldi, C. (2007). Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies. International Journal of Climatology, 27(12), 1547–1578.
Gaughan, A. E., & Waylen, P. R. (2012). Spatial and temporal precipitation variability in the Okavango–Kwando–Zambezi catchment, southern Africa. Journal of Arid Environments, 82, 19–30.
Hulme, M., Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M., & Lister, D. (1998). African climate change: 1900–2100. Climate Research, 17, 145–168.
Hyuwa, G. N. (2005). Climatic elements and agriculture in northern Nigeria. Journal of African Studies.
Inderjeet, S., & Sabita, J. (2008). SARIMA modelling of rainfall and temperature for Uttar Pradesh, India. Journal of Agrometeorology, 10(2), 115–122.
Jabrin, A., Aminu, U., & Abdullahi, M. K. (2014). SARIMA method for modeling and forecasting rainfall in Kano, Nigeria. International Journal of Science and Nature, 5(3), 413–419.
Kayano, M. T., & Sansígolo, C. (2008). Interannual to decadal variations of precipitation and daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 94, 357–372.
Lutz, A. F., ter Maat, H. W., Biemans, H., Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P., & Immerzeel, W. W. (2016). Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies. International Journal of Climatology, 36(12), 3994–4005.
Martinez, E. Z., da Silva, E. A. S., & Fabbro, A. L. D. (2011). A SARIMA forecasting model to predict dengue in Campinas, Brazil. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 44(4), 436–440.
Masih, I., & Maskey, S. (2014). A review of droughts on the African continent: A geospatial and long-term perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 3635–3649.
Mceihattan. (1975). Forecasting Precipitation Using SARIMA Model. Mathematical Theory and Modeling, 4(11), 51–56.
Nicholson, S. E., Some, B., & Kone, B. (2000). An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa. Journal of Climate, 13(14), 2628–2640.
Oguntunde, P. G., Abiodun, B. J., & Lischeid, G. (2012). Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000. Journal of Hydrology, 411(3–4), 207–218.
Ogunrinde, A. T. (2012). Application of Box-Jenkins methodology to rainfall in Lagos and Maiduguri. Unpublished MSc Dissertation.
Oladipo, E. O. (1987). A comprehensive approach to drought and desertification in Northern Nigeria. Natural Hazards, 8, 235–261.
Oladipo, E. O. (1993). Some aspects of the spatial characteristics of drought in Northern Nigeria. Natural Hazards, 8, 171–188.
Rashid, M., Beecham, S., & Chowdhury, R. K. (2015). Assessment of trends in point rainfall using continuous wavelet transforms. Advances in Water Resources, 82, 1–15.
Salman, S. A., Shahid, S., Ismail, T., Rahman, N. B. A., Wang, X., & Chung, E. S. (2018). Unidirectional trends in daily rainfall extremes of Iraq. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134, 1165–1177.
SAWA, B. A., Adebayo, A. A., Musa, A. A., & Abubakar, I. U. (2020). Climate and vegetation of the Sudano-Sahelian belt of Nigeria. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology.
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6, 461–464.
Shiru, M. S., Shahid, S., Alias, N., & Chung, E. S. (2019). Changing characteristics of drought in Nigeria during 1901–2010. Atmospheric Research, 223, 60–70.
Suhartono, & Lee, M. H. (2011). Forecasting of tourist arrivals using subset, multiplicative or additive seasonal ARIMA model. MATEMATIKA, 27(2), 169–182.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012). An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 485–498.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 23(7), 1696–1718.
Wiredu, S., Nasiru, S., & Asamoah, Y. G. (2013). Proposed SARIMA model for forecasting rainfall in the Navrongo Municipality of Ghana. Journal of Environment and Earth Science.
Téléchargements
Publié
Déclaration sur la disponibilité des données
NONE
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
© Dahida Terkuma, Haruna U. Yahaya, Thaddeus Pever, Obele T. Elorhor, Sameerah Haruna (Author) 2026
Cette œuvre est sous licence Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.
Authors are solely responsible for obtaining permission to reproduce any copyrighted material contained in the manuscript as submitted. Any instance of possible prior publication in any form must be disclosed at the time the manuscript is submitted and a
copy or link to the publication must be provided.
The Journal articles are open access and are distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 IGO License, which permits use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
No modifications or commercial use of the articles are permitted.
