Mathematical Assessment of Covid-19 Transmission Dynamic with Intervention via: ABC Fractional Operator
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62054/ijdm/0102.05Trefwoorden:
ABC-Operator, Covid-19, Intervention, Stability AnalysisSamenvatting
A Covid-19 model in terms of the ABC operator with intervention is developed and used to study the disease transmission dynamics. The model showed stability when the basic reproduction number is less than unity, indicating that each existing infection causes less than one new infection, resulting in a decline in cases. A stable system and a basic reproduction number R0 value greater than unity suggest exponential growth of the disease. The model was fitted using NCDC data from March 4 to April 30; 2022 and the sensitivity analysis reveals effective contact rates and transmissibility of asymptomatic individuals as the most sensitive parameters. Numerical simulations reveal that increased effective contact rate (social distancing) increases virus spread, while increased face mask compliance reduces exposure and infection rates. Hence wearing face masks reduces respiratory droplet transmission, reducing the need for quarantine and reducing infection rates
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